Moldova goes through a period of institutional turbulences marked by political, social and economic shocks that will be solved only if our country will understand the nature of these challenges and will formulate responses according to changes in society. In the context, IDIS Viitorul presented the top 10 risks for Moldova in 2017.
In this year the following risks and threats were identified. These are: political opportunism and sudden changes in policy agenda, reformatting flanks policy adjustments systemic for the interest of the oligarchic system, mediocre forecasts for economic growth, the banking sector crisis, mimicking economic reforms, the politicization of economic decisions, increasing poverty and population decline, risk of turbulent protests and destabilization of Moldova by the Russian Federation by the hacker political powers.
"The year 2017 promises some conflict Government – Presidency, Government – Opposition and President – Opposition, although the new head of state powers are more limited and his ambitions were electoral exaggerated. The “red lines” of conduct between PDM-PSRM are not clear if we admit that the dominant party of the ruling coalition has helped Igor Dodon become the President of Moldova", explained the expert Veaceslav Berbeca.
Regarding economic risks for Moldova, Ion Tabirta said that: "The Government of Moldova has achieved the objective of ”stabilization without economic growth". We anticipate an economic growth with indicators limited by the current administrative and political system constraints. Under these conditions of minimal progress, there is a risk of not fulfilling the other conditions for granting foreign financial assistance, formulated by the IMF and the European Union, which could lead to loss of external financial assistance to ensure the socio-economic and political stability".
The black swan phenomenon, which generates more risks was also identified in the analysis. Among the most important are: incidence of an extreme climatic phenomenon, politicized regionalism, the transition of power in the US and escalating the war in Ukraine.
TOP 10 RISK forecasting was done with the involvement of communities of policy thinkers. Respondents were asked to simulate the biggest challenges of the year 2017 for Moldova. Risk Assessment method for 2017 was limited to identifying the "triad" of some threats with political, social, economic, non-conventional impact, as well as some black swan phenomena.
The publication can be downloaded here.
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